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What does the science say about polar bears and climate change?

Polar bears stuck on sea ice have been captured on camera. They are all too frequently used as the recognizable billboard animals for a climate that is changing quickly. However, occasionally, reports in the media suggest that the situation facing polar bears may not be as dire as previously thought.

Research was conducted by Carbon Brief, which also interviewed polar bear specialists. Although little is known about some isolated polar bear populations, it is obvious that such optimism is not supported by science. Polar bears have a dismal .

lone greatest danger

Sea ice is the main habitat of polar bears. It serves as a platform for their seal hunting. In the Arctic regions of Canada, Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States, there are 19 distinct regions where polar bears can be found. These areas are depicted on the map below.

There are several subpopulations of polar bears, including those in the Arctic Basin (AB), Baffin Bay (BB), Barents Sea (BS), Chukchi Sea (CS), Davis Strait (DS), East Greenland (EG), Foxe Basin (FB), Gulf of Boothia (GB), Kane Basin (KB), Kara Sea (KS), Lancaster Sounds (LS), Laptev Sea (LP), M’Clintock Channel (MC), Northern Beaufort Sea (NB (WH). Ecoregions are denoted by colors. Source: Regher and others (2016)

Ice loss has affected all 19 polar bear subpopulations to varying degrees. According to the most recent and thorough analysis to date, sea ice loss represents the polar bear population’s biggest vulnerability overall. It came to this:

“The main threat to polar bears across their range is the loss of Arctic sea ice due to climate change… Our research suggests that there could be significant decreases in polar bear populations.

Anticipated decline

The IUCN believes that there are 26,000 polar bears worldwide, with just a 5% probability that there are less or more than that amount. However, because a number of polar bear subpopulations are yet unidentified and the numbers that are known are highly questionable, researchers are hesitant to estimate the exact size of the world’s polar bear population.

Instead, to follow the relative changes over time in the various subgroups, polar bear researchers use the finest information at their disposal. From there, they can extrapolate the changes that the population as a whole is most likely to experience. Cator clarifies: